Markets Overview

HIGHLIGHTS AHEADThis week again, the US will be the focus via July’s non-farm payrollrelease. We will get an early glimpse of the state of the US labor marketon Wednesday with the release of the ADP employment report whichmay show the US adding 210k new jobs in July (compared to the 237kincrease for June). Meanwhile, the non-farm payrolls on Friday is currentlyprojected to add 218k jobs in July, slightly lower from June’s223k. Despite the positive payrolls, markets expect the US unemploymentrate to stay unchanged at 5.3%. The other key area to watch iswage growth which is expected to increase 0.2% m/m (2.1%y/y) from0% m/m (2% y/y) in June.

    In Europe, the markets will fix their gaze on the final readings of thesectoral PMI surveys for July, which could well reveal slight upwardrevisions to their flash estimates, whilst upcoming retail sales figuresfor June should show weakness. Germany publishes June industrialorders and production figures, with France also releasing its industrialproduction data for the same period. Both countries will also produceexternal trade figures for June, all of which should help in finalizingforecasts for Q2 GDP for both countries, the preliminary data of whichwill be published the following week.

    This is a big week for the UK. Before the policy decision day, we will begetting updated sectoral PMI surveys for July and industrial productionfigures for June. Nationwide’s July report on house prices will alsobe rolled out alongside the BRC’s updated annual shop price inflationfigures for July. June external trade figures will round off the week onFriday.

    Closer Asia, this week’s key highlights include Japan’s June labor andreal cash earnings; Australia’s June trade balance and retail sales dataas well as July’s employment data for July; New Zealand’s 2Q 2015 employmentdata.