Markets Overview

Note that the Japanese markets will be closed today (12 Oct) forHealth-sports Day while it will be the Columbus Day holiday for theUS on Monday (12 Oct) with US bond markets closed for the day& no US economic data on the tap but US equity markets remainoperational. Despite the Columbus holiday, it will still be a busy weekfor US data for the week ahead with the focus on September advanceretail sales (14 Oct), September CPI data (15 Oct), September industrialproduction (16 Oct) and the prelim October University of MichiganConsumer Confidence index (16 Oct) following a dovish-sounding USFed FOMC meeting minutes released on 8 October. And while there isno FOMC this week, the Fed Reserve will release its latest Beige Bookreport on Wednesday (14 Oct) which is one of the guiding documentsfor the next FOMC meeting (27-28 Oct). There will also be several Fedspeakers and more importantly Chinese economic data on tap this week.

    But perhaps all these data will be secondary to the slew of 3Q UScorporate earnings reports starting Tuesday (13 Oct) with the majorUS banks in the spot light.

    As for the rest of the US data docket, we have the September NFIBsmall business optimism survey (13 Oct), September monthly budgetstatement (13 Oct), September PPI (14 Oct), August business inventories(14 Oct), the October Empire Manufacturing index (15 Oct), the usualweekly jobless claims (15 Oct), September real average weekly earnings(15 Oct), Philadelphia Fed business outlook survey (15 Oct), Septembermanufacturing production & capacity utilization (16 Oct), August JOLTSjob openings (16 Oct). The data docket from the rest of the developedeconomies will also be relatively busy after a quiet Monday (12 Oct), andincludes UK September BRC sales (12 Oct), Japan September banklending, September consumer confidence index and, the prelim Septembermachine tool orders (all on 13 Oct), the final print for German SeptemberCPI (13 Oct), the UK September CPI, RPI and PPI (all on 13 Oct), GermanZEW survey for month of October (13 Oct), German September WPI (13-17 Oct), Japan September PPI & money supply (both on 14 Oct), French& Italian September CPI (14 Oct), UK September jobless claims & Augustunemployment data (14 Oct), Eurozone August industrial production (14Oct), Australia October inflation expectation, September new car sales& September employment data (all on 15 Oct), Japan September Tokyocondo sales (15 Oct), final print for Japan August industrial production(15 Oct), Japan August capacity utilization (15 Oct), Japan August tertiaryindustry index (15 Oct), Eurozone & Italian August trade data (16 Oct),final print for the Eurozone September CPI (16 Oct).

    The US stock markets ended higher on Friday (9 Oct) notching the bestweekly performance for the S&P 500 so far in 2015, after oil prices ralliedstrongly in the week. The US dollar was weakest in 3 weeks against theeuro as markets speculated against the Fed’s ability to start hiking ratesthis year following the dovish FOMC minutes. The US Treasuries saw alacklustre Friday session but for the week, UST posted the biggest weeklyprice loss in more than a month on easing concerns about global growth.

    The oil markets had a mixed session on Friday as US crude futures edgedhigher but still failed to close above US$50 while Brent crude oil prices slidon profit taking, after a week of strong price rally powered by hopes foroversupply relief from lower US crude production.