The Economy Next Week:The US consumer and China data,We expect a rebound in US retail sales and early signs that China’s growth upswing is levelling

Galileo: Euro area business cycle shows signs of stabilisation The euro area business cycle remained in Slowdown in April for the fourth consecutive month but moved closer to Expansion.

    Brexit polling fatigue? There are warning signs that the UK economy is in a slowdown, with the BoE unlikely to turn hawkish anytime soon. Retail sales, jobless claims and PMIs all have disappointed expectations.

    Asia Economic Monthly: Mind the gap The large current account surpluses in Korea, Taiwan and Thailand are a red flag.

    China: Policymakers turn their attention to financial stability This increases our conviction that debt-fuelled growth is unlikely to last long.

    Hungary: The story has suddenly gotten very complicated We think the government has abandoned its upgrade target, and this has facilitated a loosening of fiscal policy. The end goal is to boost growth and maintain popularity.

    Brazil: And what about growth? Even when the cyclical (negative) elements are out of the way for activity, structural forces are still poor, as reflected in very low potential growth (around 1.5% YoY) for a country of Brazil’s income level.

    Mexico: Instruction on How to Sound Neutral The outlook for rates depends on three factors: the Fed, MXN, and how fast the output gap closes. We continue to believe that Banxico will hike with the Fed, unless the MXN depreciates significantly.

    South Africa: Benchmarking the view We forecast more benign growth than most in the short term, but are more pessimistic on the likelihood of medium-run potential being increased.