2017Macroeconomic Outlook:Executive Summary

US 2017 Outlook: Cautious optimism amid increased uncertainty at the dawn of the Trump era. Combination of Trump’s economic policies and existing fundamentals should support growth in 2017.

    GDP growth to accelerate to 2.2% YoY, as consumption and investment should outweigh drag from trade

    Trump’s main policies echo Reaganomics polices: fiscal stimulus, trade protectionism, and deregulation

    Debt ceiling deal expires in March 2017: must renegotiate or extend deal

    2-3 rate hikes expected in 2017: inflation should accelerate, while labor market is already near or at full employment

    DXY should remain strong, but upside is capped, we see DXY fluctuating between 96 and 105 next year, ending the year around 102