Asian Economics:Takin’it down a notch

It’s been a pretty decent year, all considered. At least so far. Growthin most of Asia has barrelled ahead, capital has continued to pourinto the region, and asset prices have steadily climbed higher. Notmuch to quibble about. Still, it seems activity will tick down a notchinto year-end. Exports, for one, already show signs of cooling, afterracing ahead over the first half of 2017. Local demand, too, shouldease in parts of the region, notably in China where property is losinga bit of its earlier swing. None of this is too alarming. In fact, a slowergrowth pulse should ensure that inflation stays well within bounds.

    Monetary policy, for the most part, will thus stay on hold, helping tokeep the train chugging along for a while. Reassuring enough. But itleaves the big issues unaddressed: without a more determined stabat reforms, stretching from state-owned enterprises in China to bankbalance sheets in India and labour market rules in Japan, growthwill remain far too dependent on cheap money. That may not matternow, but it will eventually.