FX Pulse

On 11 Sept, after the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) removed the 20% reserve requirement rule for foreign currency forward purchases, we thought it would trigger a reversal of the overbought CNY (see report here). Then, one of the trades we recommended was to buy 1-year USD/CNH at 6.6350 (spot: 6.51, forward pts: 1,250).。

    Fast forward 3 weeks later, the USD/CNH spot has reversed sharply, trading at about 6.6750. The 12-month forward points also rebounded from a 1-year low of around 1,200 pips. Now, the V-shaped recovery looks abit overdone. Our target of 6.80 in the 1-year forward is also met earlier. Heading into China’s Golden Week holiday starting Sunday, we felt the market is likely to transit into a consolidative mode. As such, we recommend taking profit at current levels of 6.8070 (spot: 6.6650, forward pts: 1,420).。

    On our long 6-month USD/KRW NDF recommendation (see report here), spot hit briefly above our target of 1,150 earlier. However, we believe the upside breakout is still in its infancy stage. As long as spot does not return back to the breakout point (1,138.50), an impulsive towards the next key resistance at 1,157.85 cannot be discounted. For now, we will trail our stop upwards to (a close below) 1,138 from 1,125.。