Autos India vs.Indonesia:India Ahead on PV Model Cycle

Model cycles determine winners — This Deep Dive focuses on the auto modelcycles in India and Indonesia, the two largest auto markets in South Asia. Modelcycles are key to understanding OEMs’ competitive positioning in any auto market.

    On our analysis, the best plays on the auto (PV) cycle in India are Maruti Suzukiand parent Suzuki Motor, which derives c.65% of its OP from Maruti. In Indonesia,we continue to have a Sell on Astra because the new model cycle does not favorthe company. We expect it to lose market share (to 50% or below, from 55-56%) inthe 4W market, as Wuling and Mitsubishi started product deliveries in Oct.

    India and Indonesia represent a solid growth opportunity — They are South /South East Asia’s largest and most dynamic auto markets. PV penetration per 100people is modest