JD.com Alert:Soldiering through in 2Q

Refining estimates; roll forward to FY18

    JD reports 2Q results in mid-August. The government reported strong June online shopping growth of 33.4% YoY. With competition amongst the top e-commerce players particularly intense during the 6.18 promotion. JD 1P GM should see some sequential pressure due to discounts/subsidies, but several opex items should see some leverage. We ease our 2Q gross margin by 30bps to 14.7%, and lift non-GAAP net margin by 80bps to 1%. We maintain 2Q revenue forecasts of RMB89.8bn (in-line with consensus), and lift 2Q non-GAAP net income to RMB931mn (from RMB195mn) vs consensus RMB962mn. We increase FY17 non-GAAP net margin by 40bps to 1.1% (note: JD Finance not deconsolidated). We also roll forward our valuation base year from FY17 to FY18 which raises our TP by 20% to US$50.

    Apparel category competition intensifies

    Competition in the most recent 6.18 event grew as it for the first time also included Alibaba, Vipshop and Suning. Recall that JD and Vipshop publically contested the exclusive agreements that Tmall had signed with some apparel merchants. Although any regulatory follow-up is unclear, we believe the profile it has drawn could enable more supplier relationships for JD as it seeks to secure apparel inventory. The company seeks to grow apparel to its biggest category in the next 5 years. Progress in expanding apparel sales on the 3P Marketplace would be welcome, and should improve 1P gross margin as a more profitable category if sold on a principal basis.

    Shifting up logistics partners

    JD recently announced it would shorten its list of service providers to JD logistics, S.F. Express, ZTO, Yunda and STO, while removing TianTian, EMS, YTO, Best Logistics, and Deppon. Management indicated the move is intended to improve service quality. We believe it may be related to increased competition from these operators in the fields of warehousing and supply chain management. It should enhance operations at the group’s stand-alone JD Logistics division.

    Lifting TP by 20% to US$50; roll forward to FY18, maintain Buy

    We maintain our FY17/18/19E revenue forecast and lift non-GAAP net margin by 40bps/40bps/20bps to 1.1%/2.0%/2.7% to reflect better operating leverage. We roll forward our valuation base year to FY18. Our TP is based on an equal weighting of DCF and unchanged 1.1x FY18E EV/Sales. We adopt a 12.3% discount rate (0% debt to equity ratio, 12.3% cost of equity) and a 2% terminal growth rate. Risks: higher O2O losses, slower user/GMV expansion