Container Shipping Sector:Weekly commentary

Freight rate trend - freight rates trended down further. The Shanghai Container Freight Index (SCFI) dropped 8.5% WoW for the week ended 17th June 2016, after a 5.3% decline the week before. Despite load factor of about 90% on both Asia-Europe and Transpacific tradelanes, according to Shanghai Shipping Exchange, spot freight rates on both tradelanes dropped further for the week ended 17th June 2016 as the market was weak with rampant overcapacity. Spot freight rate on the Asia-Europe tradelane decreased 17.8% WoW to US$540/TEU, pretty close to the level before the rate hike at the start of June. Spot freight rate of the Transpacific tradelane also fell close to the levels before the monthly rate hike, down 5.1% WoW to US$770/FEU.

    Market news - Drewry, however, said the rate erosion could be slowly coming to an end. Drewry said the rate decline in 1Q16 on the major East-West tradelanes was more severe than it might otherwise have been as the basic supply and demand fundamentals were actually better for carriers in 1Q16 than 1Q15. Hence, as Drewry pointed out, the rate attrition in 1Q16 was largely a result of predatory commercial strategies of the carriers during the period. Heading into the peak season, Drewry believes the container shipping companies, after suffering from the low freight rates in 1Q16, seem to be more willing to restore the freight rates, though it is still far from a true recovery in the view of Drewry. However, despite the void sailings and other capacity reductions during the month, the rate hike at the start of June was still unsustainable, repeating the same cycle of hike-attrition-hike.

    We maintain our MARKET PERFORM recommendation. The Board of Directors of NOL appointed new CEO and CFO on 14th June 2016 after CMA CGM acquired the majority stake owned by Temasek and its affiliates. According to a statement by CMA CGM on 9th June, it already owned 78% of NOL. As we have mentioned before, CMA CGM reiterated its intention to delist NOL once it has acquired more than 90% of NOL. The deadline for existing shareholders to sell their shareholding to CMA CGM is 10th July 2016. The positive development of BREXIT poll has seemed to support the market rebound, including the share prices of HK-listed container shipping companies. As the outcome of BREXIT poll will come out on Friday (Asia time), we expect share prices of HK-listed container shipping companies to remain volatile this week.