EMEA Mining:A metallic flashback to 2010and the outlook for 2017

With de-gearing largely done, 2017will present the miners with a familiar FCF dilemma. Weexpect cash to be returned to shareholders, but are concerned ‘house-keeping’ capex could startto creep up and new projects could be approved (~30projects in our coverage are at feasibilitystage). We doubt that major M&A will make a comeback, and after the 100% rally year to date,we now have little upside to our TPs. We expect the blanket sector trade will yield to stockspecific opportunities and thus we now take a more neutral view on the miners. RIO remains ourtop pick. We resume GLEN at Hold, downgrade BOL to Hold and KAZ to Sell.