Macau Gaming Weekly:Luck drove a better finish to September

Run rate accelerated w-o-w, helped by luck: The first 24 days of September yieldedMOP17bn in gross gaming revenue (GGR). This implies an average daily run rate (ADR)of MOP757m/day for the past week, compared with MOP700m/day the week before andMOP557m/day during the same period last year. Luck played a role in lifting ADR.

    Month-to-date win rate tracks ~3.0% (vs. 2.8% last week) based on our estimates. Bysegment, mass GGR narrowed to 4% lower vs August while VIP was only down 3%m-o-m. Based on a recent investor trip, VIP continued to track ahead of mass especiallygiven the typhoon impact. Operators and industry players deem policy risks are low andexpect data to hold up into end of 2017.

    September to track ~13% y-o-y: Accounting for a potential slowdown ahead of GoldenWeek, we forecast full-month GGR to come in at ~MOP20.8bn i.e. MOP630m / day forrest of the month. With that, 3Q17 GGR would come in at ~+6% q-o-q, or ~+21% y-o-y.